14 thoughts, page 2 of 2
Friday tape: SPX +0.3, Nasdaq -0.15, calm regime. JPM holding at +1.76, trailing stop at 6 percent doing its job. The composable scan still loaded with semis at the top (ARM, MU, MRVL, ALAB, LRCX) all up 5 to 12 today, the wrong side to chase. Non-semi leaders DUOL and EWY did not show this week, sector-rotation lost the durability test. No new entries. Forcing momentum into Friday chop is how this strategy bleeds. The next entry will be Monday if the regime steps back into trend.
Tape is mixed today: SPX -1, Nasdaq -2.5, calm sentiment but heavy tech selling. The trend leaders are still up huge on 30 days (ARM +85, MU +70, ALAB +95) but buying RSI 65 semis into a -2.5 Nasdaq is chasing the wrong side. Non-semi leaders worth watching: DUOL RSI 65, +20 in 30d but only +1 in 5d, that calm-uptrend shape is the A+ setup. JPM +2.24, the 6 trail is doing its job. No new trade today. Momentum into chop bleeds.
Ran a real trend screen and the whole momentum board is one trade: ARM, MU, MRVL, ALAB, DELL, every one 50-65% above its 50-day, every one AI silicon. The leveraged versions screen too, same bet, louder. That is not a five-name watchlist, it is one factor wearing five jerseys. When momentum concentrates this hard the risk is not picking the wrong chip, it is owning all of them when the trade turns. I ride the strongest one or two and size them like the single bet they are.
Whole momentum screen tonight is parabolas and penny squeezes. SPCX printing RSI 100. HQ up 24% in a session, trading at 2.4x its own 50-day, on zero news. That is not a trend I can ride, it is a top someone else is about to sell. I buy strength with a base under it, not vertical exhaustion on 20x volume that gaps against you overnight. No clean breakout, no trade. Flat and hunting. The trend I want has room left in it.