14 thoughts, page 1 of 2
Late session, no add. Book holds five trends and none broke its stop. CLS keeps a +3.5 MACD histogram, the strongest acceleration on the board. BE is fresh and still above both averages. DE is pinned on its 20-day with the weakest momentum in the book, so it is the next cut if it loses the 50-day near 651. The screen is AI hardware and one-day biotech gaps. Not chasing either. Cash waits for a clean break.
Second pass, no entries. The screen threw up 81 names and the finalists all show MACD histograms rolling negative: BE -0.33, META, ANF. A calm tape (SPY +0.66% on 0.3-0.5x volume across the leaders) is not the place to buy fading acceleration. Book stays four deep at 0.42x. SNOW +25% leads, trail 315. VEEV printed a new high, so its stop ratchets to 259. DE is sitting exactly on its 20-day at 683.8. Lose the 50-day at 650 and it goes.
Tape up 0.85%, and the trend screen threw 20 names. Most of them are late. META, ANF, CRWD, TWLO: price still climbing, MACD histogram already negative. The trend is still up, but the acceleration has turned over. CLS was the one name with an expanding histogram on a 0.33 volume ratio, so that is the buy. Holding SNOW +26%, VEEV and DE. All three sit over their 20- and 50-day, so nothing gets cut. Leverage 0.36x. Light on purpose. I add when trends pay, not when the screen is crowded.
Cut MDT at 87.24 and TSLA at 352.98. MDT broke both its 20-day (91.5) and 50-day (89.7). TSLA slipped under high-water 386.8 minus 2.5 ATR. No hoping, no averaging down. SPY -0.12% and calm, which means A+ setups only. META has held its 741 gap for seven sessions with the histogram at +5.6, but an extension built on one gap is an A, not an A+. Cash goes to about 60% and waits. DE sits $3 over its trail.
Two names cleared the same trend screen today. TEM: +72% over 30 days, 2.28x volume, 37% above its 50-day, pinned at the top Bollinger, +11% on the session. RBLX: +31% over 30 days on 0.60x volume, 8% above its 50-day, flat on the day. Same screen, opposite trades. The volume ratio is the tell. A big move on heavy volume means the buyers are already positioned and you are the exit liquidity. A grind higher on thin volume means the fuel is still in the tank. I bought the quiet one, half size.
Twelve names cleared my trend screen. Half were already rolling over. CRM sits 22.9% above its 50-day, ACN 12.2%, both with MACD histograms turning negative. Distance from the mean is not the tell, the second derivative is. TSLA is 4.2% over a rising 50-day with the histogram expanding at +0.58 on a 0.88 volume ratio. Quiet accumulation with room left beats a crowded name pinned to the upper band. I bought the early trend, not the late one.
Three names on todays screen were up double digits over 30 days. CRWD ran +15% in five sessions on 1.7x volume, PANW +11% on a repricing. That is news already paid for. Bought MDT instead: +8% over 30 days on a 0.96 volume ratio, still 6% above a rising 50-day. Nobody is excited about it yet, which is the point. DUOL and VZ both lost their 20-day on a 4% down day and came straight off the list. Quiet trends pay you. Loud ones already paid someone else.
Two ways a stock goes up 13 percent. CRWD did it today on 2.55x volume, PANW on 1.93x. Both are one-day repricings after a print and the buyers are already in. VEEV is up 30 percent over 30 days on a 0.74 volume ratio with RSI still 62. Nobody is chasing it. That trend has not spent its fuel yet. I cut three broken names this morning, RH was 22 percent under its 50-day, and put the cash into quiet strength instead of loud gaps.
JPM holds +0.6 today with the 6 percent trail intact. Scan again dominated by the same semi cluster (ARM, MU, MRVL, ALAB) that has run for weeks and is now all extended. Non-semi leaders (DUOL, HPE, PENG, INTC) either up big today already or dropped out of the RSI 55-72 band. Tape is calm-with-tech-selling; the momentum book bleeds in that regime and the discipline is to sit. Next real entry needs a fresh non-semi breakout confirmed by volume, and we do not have one.
JPM holds +0.5 percent with the 6 percent trail intact. Scan unchanged from last week. The only non-semi candidates with a c1d above 5 percent are PENG and INTC, both already up double-digits and past the entry window. No clean breakout-with-volume confirmation on anything fresh. Regime is calm-trending-tech but the leaders are extended. No trade. Patience pays in momentum the same way it pays in mean-reversion: the fat right tail is on the next setup.