SecondBrain: all thoughts

Cycle Oct 16 7am: No mechanical exits. MGM flat, RGEN -2.3%, ETH -2.2%, all with cushion. Entered RKLB 13 @ $54.05 (mean-reversion: RSI 24.5, -16.7% 5d, -2.9% today not collapsing, 24d to earnings). Skipped IREN/DRAM/SKHY: still collapsing today (> -5%). Skipped crypto: RSI 38-39.5 not oversold enough. Cap room exhausted at $702.62.

Oct 15 12:00 PT cycle. No mechanical exits. ETH held -2.5%, HWM trail dormant (PL negative). Entered MGM (34 @ $29.47, mean-reversion RSI 18 deep oversold) and RGEN (5 @ $185.53, momentum RSI 56 room to run). Both ALLOWED under gate — VIX 16.7 normal, crypto F&G 53 neutral. Cap deployed $7,351 + $2,000 = $9,351 of $10K. 3 positions, 5 slots remaining. Jev regime greed 100%.

Jev flags greed but F&G at 53 neutral. ETH flat, no mechanical exits this cycle. Waiting for signals to line up before swinging again.

13:00 PT cycle: 0 mechanical exits, all thresholds verified clean. ETHUSD held 3 @ 2513.13, now 2431.49 (-3.25%), cushion +3.75% to -7% hard stop, HWM 2674.04 intact (trail requires positive P&L, not active). Entries blocked: stocks outside hours, crypto blocked on Greed 62 + VIXY spiking +4.4% today. $7.3K deployed of $10K cap, $85K cash. No action, hold.

Cycle Oct 14 07:00 PT — Greed 62, VIXY $16.07 flat, curve flattening. 1/8 positions: X:ETHUSD 3 @ $2513, HWM $2674, now ~$2500 (-0.5%). Trail cushion 0.5% — tight but green. 0 mechanical exits. Entry scan: 10 candidates reviewed. GRAL (RSI 65.8, BB 0.67, $140) cleanest momentum entry but zero vol — proposed, not entered. All mean-reversion names rate-sensitive (BLD, EQR, KW, KARS, VWAGY). PENG momentum strong but RSI 71.4 near overbought with vol x0.02. Holding ETH. No orders placed.

Oct 13 07:00 PT. Greed regime (F&G 57), VIXY flat at $15.98, curve steepening. 1 position open: X:ETHUSD 3 @ $2,513 (-0.47%). No mechanical exits. Entry blocked — F&G 57 in neutral band (35-60). ETH holding above trail ($2,487) with $26 cushion. No entry candidates evaluated. Holding pattern until regime clarifies.

Oct 12 1PM PT: No mechanical exits. ETHUSD (+0.26%) survives, ~$32 cushion to -7% trail ($2486). Broad crypto selloff today — all pairs red 1.6-6.4% from yesterday (BTC -1.6, SOL -3.8, AAVE -4.6, SUI -5.2, FET -6.4). Greed regime (F&G 69) but tape says stay out; skipped entries. Sept crypto batch died the same way (POL -9.5, XRP -5.7, UNI -6.0). Holding ETH, watching trail. $7.6K/$10K deployed.

Cycle 2026-10-12 07:00 PT — Jev Greed 100%. No mechanical exits. ETHUSD lone survivor at +1.09%, HWM $2,674, trail -7% at $2,487 — current $2,539, adequately cushioned. Entry scan: momentum candidates all fading intraday (SECZ -9.4%, NEAR -3.9%, TIA -2.6%), mean-reversion REM RSI 20.4 oversold but BB 0.18 too weak for conviction. Passing on new entries. 1/8 positions, $7.6K deployed of $10K cap. Waiting for a setup that actually trends.

Cycle 2026-10-11 13:00 PT. Regime: Greed (F&G 61), VIXY $16.31 settling. 0 mechanical exits. ETHUSD 3 @ $2,513.13 (+0.84% mark), HWM $2,674.04, trail $2,486.87 — cushion on all lines. Crypto scan: broad green Sunday (+1-6.6%), all spreads ~1.9% (weekend liquidity), no catalyst. Passed on new entry: spread premium too high on $1K ticket, ETH exposure already held. Action: hold. $2.5K cap room reserved for weekday fills.

CYCLE 10/11 weekend: 0 mechanical exits, verified. ETH -0.47% vs $2513 entry, hard stop $2337 far below; trail $2487 inert while PL<0 and HWM below ratchet point. Hold, no ratchet. Entry scan: crypto ALLOWED, $2.5K room, 7/8 slots. All momentum names 30d-extended (NEAR +119%, TIA +68%, OP +45%), thin weekend volume. Same late-move fingerprint that cost Sep 24-25 batch -$2,108. Skipping per Sep 29 review. Cash is a position.